NY-20: Dem Internal Has Murphy Within 7

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (2-24/25, likely voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 37

Jim Tedisco (R): 44

Eric Sundwall (L): 4

(n = 400)

This is starting to look rather encouraging: never-before-elected venture capitalist Scott Murphy is within 7 points of state assembly minority leader Jim Tedisco in a Democratic internal poll in the race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. Tedisco led by 21 in early February in his own POS internal and then by 12 in an independent poll in mid-February from Siena, so while there’s an apples and oranges problem here among pollsters, there’s an upward trajectory for Murphy as we approach the Mar. 31 special election.

One other observation: folks in the media are treating this poll as evidence that Tedisco’s hemming and hawing about voting for the economic stimulus package (and the ensuing broadside of criticism he received from the local papers’ editorial boards) hurt him. I’m sure that’s true. But look at the dates this poll was in the field: two and a half weeks ago, before Tedisco’s vacillations really started to define the race, and only a week after that Siena poll. I don’t know why they waited so long to release the poll, but given the age of this poll and intervening events, it’s quite possible that the real race is even closer. (Discussion is underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

26 thoughts on “NY-20: Dem Internal Has Murphy Within 7”

  1. Reckon it’ll be a nailbitter either way. Looking forward to following the returns as usual with you guys. Break out the county performance charts!!!

  3. has gillibrand been out there yet?  also, if he loses can we have a sessions deathwatch and a steele deathwatch? (point of specification for o’reilly’s trolls looking for a reason to hate blogs, we mean death of their CAREERS.  we do not wish bodily harm on anyone.  except dane cook, and that’s just me.)

  4. i mean i’m glad it’s close.  but the ground game and voter energy will be everything.  i don’t know who will be more fired up – Ds or Rs.

  5. For example, Joe Cao won only because the election date got changed until after the general, and the Republicans were more motivated to come out and vote, even though both major parties had even less votes in that election than they did during the primary election on November 4.

    That said, it needs to be seen that Murphy’s team can pull the vote out on election day, not just Democrats but any Independents they can sway over. The same for Tedisco’s people.

  7. it won’t be for lack of effort locally; I’ve been very impressed with Murphy’s campaign, for a neophyte.  He’s run a clear and focussed message from the start (though Tedisco’s, er, I was going to call if “waffling”, but that’s not what he’s doing…refusal to say anything at all about the stimulus bill is a golden opportunity to inject an actual issue into a by-election).

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